A Study on the Impact of Industrial Restructuring on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Scenario Simulation in the Yellow River Basin

Based on a detailed analysis of the impact mechanism industrial restructuring carbon dioxide emissions in Yellow River Basin, this paper first calculated emission data 57 prefecture-level cities Basin from 2009 to 2019 and constructed indicators two dimensions: advancement rationalization structure. Then, Stochastic Impacts by Regression Population, Affluence, Technology (STIRPAT) model was used empirically analyze influencing factors structure adjustments Basin. Consequently, changing trends under various scenarios were predicted. The research observed following: (1) eastern part Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration Energy Golden Triangle have higher emissions; (2) structures has better reduction effect than structures; (3) increased foreign investment will lead an increase “Pollution Refuge Effect” emerge; (4) accelerated transformations upgrades, high-quality economic development, moderate population growth rate are consistent with future development trends.